Team strength (Elo)Strength
+100Modeled
Mexico 1868 vs Korea Republic 1768 on Theo's strength rating.
homeRating: 1868awayRating: 1768
Source: Theo strength model
Group stage 2026-06-18 Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Mexico2–1
Projected
Korea RepublicWhere to watch · US
9:00 PM ETFOXFree over the air
- FOXTV networkTV
- FOX OneStreamingStream
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English-language coverage in the US (FOX Sports). Times shown in ET.
Likely line-ups
4-3-3FormationAttacking
Tap a player on the pitch or in the list to see their card.
Likely XI · ranked by Theo rating — tap a player to inspect
Predicted line-up from Theo's squad model — not an official team sheet.
Outcome
Mexico68%
Draw16%
Korea Republic16%
Mexico is favored over Korea Republic on the blended model. Key swing factors: Venue & host edge (+55), FIFA ranking (+9), Squad quality (+9). Scoreline, win, and market numbers all derive from one Poisson model — open the breakdown for the full math.
From edge to scoreline — the chain
1Factors → edge
+173
Every factor sums to a net rating edge for Mexico.
2Edge → expected goals
2.80 – 1.36
1.45 · e^(+173/600) · form = ×1.33
Base 1.45/1.25 goals, scaled by the edge and recent form.
3Poisson → scoreline
2–1
A Poisson grid on those goal rates yields every scoreline (8.3% most likely).
4Outcome
68%
68% Mexico · 16% draw · 16% Korea Republic.
Most likely scorelines
012345022146422686336852445425232
↓ Mexico goalsKorea Republic goals →
- 2–18.3%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–06.1%
- 1–15.9%
Match markets
Both teams to score70%
Over 2.5 goals78%
Under 2.5 goals22%
Home clean sheet26%
Away clean sheet6%
Factor breakdown — the math
Each factor contributes rating points toward Mexico (right, pink) or Korea Republic (left). They sum to a net edge of +173 for Mexico, which sets the expected goals and everything above.
Recent formForm
+0Live
Form: Mexico W vs Korea Republic W.
homePointsPerGame: 3awayPointsPerGame: 3homePlayed: 1awayPlayed: 1
Source: API-Football team form
Squad qualityStrength
+9Modeled
Top-XI average rating 81.2 vs 79.7.
homeTopXI: 81.2awayTopXI: 79.7
Source: Theo squad ratings
Venue & host edgeVenue
+55Modeled
Estadio Akron: host advantage +55. High-altitude venue.
venue: Estadio GuadalajarahostAdvantage: 55altitudeTier: high-altituderoof: Open-air
Source: Venue & altitude model
Rest & congestionFatigue
+0Modeled
Rest days: Mexico 7, Korea Republic 7.
homeRestDays: 7awayRestDays: 7
Source: Schedule (rest between matches)
Weather & heatWeather
+0Live
Overcast, 17°C (WBGT 20.5°C, Comfortable).
tempC: 17heatIndexC: 16.8wbgtC: 20.5heatStress: noneroof: Open-air
Source: Theo weather (Open-Meteo)
FIFA rankingStrength
+9Modeled
FIFA rank 16 vs 22.
homeRank: 16awayRank: 22
Source: FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (fallback)
Projected scorers
- Hwang In-Beom42% anytime
- Oh Hyeon-Gyu42% anytime
- Edson Álvarez36% anytime
- Hirving Lozano34% anytime
- Santiago Giménez34% anytime
- Orbelín Pineda29% anytime
Predicted injury risk
Which players Theo predicts are most at risk, from workload, age, congestion, and heat — a model read, not a medical assessment.
- Raúl Jiménezage 3532%
- Son Heung-minage 3432%
- Lee Jae-sungage 3432%
- Kim Seung-gyuage 3632%
- Kim Young-gwonage 3732%
- Jesús Gallardoage 3124%
Weather & heat
17°C
Temp
18°C
Feels like
16.8°C
Heat index
20.5°C
WBGT
5 km/h
Wind
none
Heat stress
Model vs market
No market line available for this match yet. Add an Odds API key (or wait for books to post this fixture) to compare Theo's model against the de-vigged market consensus.