Team strength (Elo)Strength
+10Modeled
Canada 1698 vs Qatar 1688 on Theo's strength rating.
homeRating: 1698awayRating: 1688
Source: Theo strength model
Group stage 2026-06-18 BC Place, Vancouver
Canada1–0
Projected
QatarWhere to watch · US
6:00 PM ETFS1
- FS1TV networkTV
- FOX OneStreamingStream
- FOX Sports appStreamingStream
- FuboStreamingStream
- YouTube TVStreamingStream
- Hulu + Live TVStreamingStream
- Sling TVStreamingStream
- DirecTV StreamStreamingStream
English-language coverage in the US (FOX Sports). Times shown in ET.
Likely line-ups
5-3-2FormationDefensive
Tap a player on the pitch or in the list to see their card.
Likely XI · ranked by Theo rating — tap a player to inspect
Predicted line-up from Theo's squad model — not an official team sheet.
Outcome
Canada48%
Draw28%
Qatar23%
Canada is favored over Qatar on the blended model. Key swing factors: Venue & host edge (+50), Squad quality (+23), Rest & congestion (+9). Scoreline, win, and market numbers all derive from one Poisson model — open the breakdown for the full math.
From edge to scoreline — the chain
1Factors → edge
+95
Every factor sums to a net rating edge for Canada.
2Edge → expected goals
1.31 – 0.82
1.45 · e^(+95/600) · form = ×1.17
Base 1.45/1.25 goals, scaled by the edge and recent form.
3Poisson → scoreline
1–0
A Poisson grid on those goal rates yields every scoreline (15.6% most likely).
4Outcome
48%
48% Canada · 28% draw · 23% Qatar.
Most likely scorelines
0123450121041161352108334445
↓ Canada goalsQatar goals →
- 1–015.6%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–011.9%
- 2–010.2%
Match markets
Both teams to score41%
Over 2.5 goals36%
Under 2.5 goals64%
Home clean sheet44%
Away clean sheet27%
Factor breakdown — the math
Each factor contributes rating points toward Canada (right, pink) or Qatar (left). They sum to a net edge of +95 for Canada, which sets the expected goals and everything above.
Recent formForm
+0Live
Form: Canada D vs Qatar D.
homePointsPerGame: 1awayPointsPerGame: 1homePlayed: 1awayPlayed: 1
Source: API-Football team form
Squad qualityStrength
+23Modeled
Top-XI average rating 78.5 vs 74.6.
homeTopXI: 78.5awayTopXI: 74.6
Source: Theo squad ratings
Venue & host edgeVenue
+50Modeled
BC Place: host advantage +50.
venue: BC Place VancouverhostAdvantage: 50altitudeTier: sea-levelroof: Retractable
Source: Venue & altitude model
Rest & congestionFatigue
+9Modeled
Rest days: Canada 6, Qatar 5.
homeRestDays: 6awayRestDays: 5
Source: Schedule (rest between matches)
Weather & heatWeather
+0Live
Clear sky, 15°C (WBGT 17.4°C, Comfortable).
tempC: 15heatIndexC: 15.3wbgtC: 17.4heatStress: noneroof: Retractable
Source: Theo weather (Open-Meteo)
FIFA rankingStrength
+3Modeled
FIFA rank 31 vs 33.
homeRank: 31awayRank: 33
Source: FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (fallback)
Projected scorers
- C. Larin65% anytime
- Akram Afif17% anytime
- Almoez Ali14% anytime
- Hassan Al-Haydos11% anytime
- Karim Boudiaf8% anytime
- Abdulaziz Hatem6% anytime
Predicted injury risk
Which players Theo predicts are most at risk, from workload, age, congestion, and heat — a model read, not a medical assessment.
- Hassan Al-Haydosage 3532%
- Boualem Khoukhiage 3532%
- Karim Boudiafage 3532%
- Pedro Miguelage 3532%
- Cyle Larinage 3124%
- Richie Laryeaage 3124%
Weather & heat
15°C
Temp
12°C
Feels like
15.3°C
Heat index
17.4°C
WBGT
26 km/h
Wind
none
Heat stress
Model vs market
No market line available for this match yet. Add an Odds API key (or wait for books to post this fixture) to compare Theo's model against the de-vigged market consensus.