Team strength (Elo)Strength
+214Modeled
Switzerland 1884 vs Bosnia and Herzegovina 1670 on Theo's strength rating.
homeRating: 1884awayRating: 1670
Source: Theo strength model
Group stage 2026-06-18 SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Switzerland1–0
Projected
Bosnia and HerzegovinaWhere to watch · US
3:00 PM ETFOXFree over the air
- FOXTV networkTV
- FOX OneStreamingStream
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English-language coverage in the US (FOX Sports). Times shown in ET.
Likely line-ups
4-3-3FormationAttacking
Tap a player on the pitch or in the list to see their card.
Likely XI · ranked by Theo rating — tap a player to inspect
Predicted line-up from Theo's squad model — not an official team sheet.
Outcome
Switzerland63%
Draw23%
Bosnia and Herzegovina14%
Switzerland is favored over Bosnia and Herzegovina on the blended model. Key swing factors: FIFA ranking (+32), Squad quality (+14), Rest & congestion (-9). Scoreline, win, and market numbers all derive from one Poisson model — open the breakdown for the full math.
From edge to scoreline — the chain
1Factors → edge
+250
Every factor sums to a net rating edge for Switzerland.
2Edge → expected goals
1.69 – 0.63
1.45 · e^(+250/600) · form = ×1.52
Base 1.45/1.25 goals, scaled by the edge and recent form.
3Poisson → scoreline
1–0
A Poisson grid on those goal rates yields every scoreline (16.5% most likely).
4Outcome
63%
63% Switzerland · 23% draw · 14% Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Most likely scorelines
01234501061171032149385435
↓ Switzerland goalsBosnia and Herzegovina goals →
- 1–016.5%
- 2–014.0%
- 1–110.5%
- 0–09.8%
Match markets
Both teams to score38%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Under 2.5 goals59%
Home clean sheet53%
Away clean sheet18%
Factor breakdown — the math
Each factor contributes rating points toward Switzerland (right, pink) or Bosnia and Herzegovina (left). They sum to a net edge of +250 for Switzerland, which sets the expected goals and everything above.
Recent formForm
+0Live
Form: Switzerland D vs Bosnia and Herzegovina D.
homePointsPerGame: 1awayPointsPerGame: 1homePlayed: 1awayPlayed: 1
Source: API-Football team form
Squad qualityStrength
+14Modeled
Top-XI average rating 79.5 vs 77.2.
homeTopXI: 79.5awayTopXI: 77.2
Source: Theo squad ratings
Venue & host edgeVenue
+0Modeled
SoFi Stadium: host advantage +0.
venue: Los Angeles StadiumhostAdvantage: 0altitudeTier: sea-levelroof: Fixed translucent canopy
Source: Venue & altitude model
Rest & congestionFatigue
-9Modeled
Rest days: Switzerland 5, Bosnia and Herzegovina 6.
homeRestDays: 5awayRestDays: 6
Source: Schedule (rest between matches)
Weather & heatWeather
+0Live
Overcast, 16°C (WBGT 19.9°C, Comfortable).
tempC: 16heatIndexC: 16.3wbgtC: 19.9heatStress: noneroof: Fixed translucent canopy
Source: Theo weather (Open-Meteo)
FIFA rankingStrength
+32Modeled
FIFA rank 14 vs 35.
homeRank: 14awayRank: 35
Source: FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (fallback)
Projected scorers
- Granit Xhaka29% anytime
- Breel Embolo21% anytime
- Remo Freuler19% anytime
- Dan Ndoye19% anytime
- Ruben Vargas17% anytime
- Djibril Sow15% anytime
Predicted injury risk
Which players Theo predicts are most at risk, from workload, age, congestion, and heat — a model read, not a medical assessment.
- Remo Freulerage 3432%
- Edin Džekoage 4032%
- Miralem Pjanićage 3632%
- Edin Višćaage 3532%
- Granit Xhakaage 3324%
- Ricardo Rodríguezage 3324%
Weather & heat
16°C
Temp
18°C
Feels like
16.3°C
Heat index
19.9°C
WBGT
2 km/h
Wind
none
Heat stress
Model vs market
No market line available for this match yet. Add an Odds API key (or wait for books to post this fixture) to compare Theo's model against the de-vigged market consensus.