Team strength (Elo)Strength
+8Modeled
Czechia 1660 vs South Africa 1652 on Theo's strength rating.
homeRating: 1660awayRating: 1652
Source: Theo strength model
Group stage 2026-06-18 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Czechia1–0
Projected
South AfricaWhere to watch · US
12:00 PM ETFOXFree over the air
- FOXTV networkTV
- FOX OneStreamingStream
- FOX Sports appStreamingStream
- FuboStreamingStream
- YouTube TVStreamingStream
- Hulu + Live TVStreamingStream
- Sling TVStreamingStream
- DirecTV StreamStreamingStream
English-language coverage in the US (FOX Sports). Times shown in ET.
Likely line-ups
4-4-2FormationBalanced classic
Tap a player on the pitch or in the list to see their card.
Likely XI · ranked by Theo rating — tap a player to inspect
Predicted line-up from Theo's squad model — not an official team sheet.
Outcome
Czechia43%
Draw30%
South Africa27%
Czechia is favored over South Africa on the blended model. Key swing factors: Squad quality (+9). Scoreline, win, and market numbers all derive from one Poisson model — open the breakdown for the full math.
From edge to scoreline — the chain
1Factors → edge
+18
Every factor sums to a net rating edge for Czechia.
2Edge → expected goals
1.15 – 0.85
1.45 · e^(+18/600) · form = ×1.03
Base 1.45/1.25 goals, scaled by the edge and recent form.
3Poisson → scoreline
1–0
A Poisson grid on those goal rates yields every scoreline (15.6% most likely).
4Outcome
43%
43% Czechia · 30% draw · 27% South Africa.
Most likely scorelines
012345014125116136298333345
↓ Czechia goalsSouth Africa goals →
- 1–015.6%
- 0–013.6%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.5%
Match markets
Both teams to score39%
Over 2.5 goals32%
Under 2.5 goals68%
Home clean sheet43%
Away clean sheet32%
Factor breakdown — the math
Each factor contributes rating points toward Czechia (right, pink) or South Africa (left). They sum to a net edge of +18 for Czechia, which sets the expected goals and everything above.
Recent formForm
+0Live
Form: Czechia L vs South Africa L.
homePointsPerGame: 0awayPointsPerGame: 0homePlayed: 1awayPlayed: 1
Source: API-Football team form
Squad qualityStrength
+9Modeled
Top-XI average rating 78.5 vs 77.1.
homeTopXI: 78.5awayTopXI: 77.1
Source: Theo squad ratings
Venue & host edgeVenue
+0Modeled
Mercedes-Benz Stadium: host advantage +0.
venue: Atlanta StadiumhostAdvantage: 0altitudeTier: moderateroof: Retractable (pinwheel)
Source: Venue & altitude model
Rest & congestionFatigue
+0Modeled
Rest days: Czechia 7, South Africa 7.
homeRestDays: 7awayRestDays: 7
Source: Schedule (rest between matches)
Weather & heatWeather
+0Live
Overcast, 21°C (WBGT 25.2°C, Elevated heat stress).
tempC: 21heatIndexC: 21.7wbgtC: 25.2heatStress: elevatedroof: Retractable (pinwheel)
Source: Theo weather (Open-Meteo)
FIFA rankingStrength
+2Modeled
FIFA rank 37 vs 38.
homeRank: 37awayRank: 38
Source: FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (fallback)
Projected scorers
- Patrik Schick20% anytime
- Tomáš Souček18% anytime
- Teboho Mokoena13% anytime
- Lukáš Provod12% anytime
- Antonín Barák12% anytime
- Václav Černý12% anytime
Predicted injury risk
Which players Theo predicts are most at risk, from workload, age, congestion, and heat — a model read, not a medical assessment.
- Vladimír Coufalage 34 · elevated heat38%
- Ronwen Williamsage 34 · elevated heat38%
- Themba Zwaneage 36 · elevated heat38%
- Tomáš Součekage 31 · elevated heat30%
- Antonín Barákage 31 · elevated heat30%
- Percy Tauage 32 · elevated heat30%
Weather & heat
21°C
Temp
25°C
Feels like
21.7°C
Heat index
25.2°C
WBGT
3 km/h
Wind
elevated
Heat stress
Model vs market
No market line available for this match yet. Add an Odds API key (or wait for books to post this fixture) to compare Theo's model against the de-vigged market consensus.