Team strength (Elo)Strength
-296Modeled
Uzbekistan 1630 vs Colombia 1926 on Theo's strength rating.
homeRating: 1630awayRating: 1926
Source: Theo strength model
Group stage 2026-06-17 Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Uzbekistan0–2
Projected
ColombiaWhere to watch · US
10:00 PM ETFS1
- FS1TV networkTV
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English-language coverage in the US (FOX Sports). Times shown in ET.
Likely line-ups
4-4-2FormationBalanced classic
Tap a player on the pitch or in the list to see their card.
Likely XI · ranked by Theo rating — tap a player to inspect
Predicted line-up from Theo's squad model — not an official team sheet.
Outcome
Uzbekistan11%
Draw17%
Colombia72%
Colombia is favored over Uzbekistan on the blended model. Key swing factors: FIFA ranking (-45), Squad quality (-25). Scoreline, win, and market numbers all derive from one Poisson model — open the breakdown for the full math.
From edge to scoreline — the chain
1Factors → edge
-366
Every factor sums to a net rating edge for Colombia.
2Edge → expected goals
0.79 – 2.30
1.45 · e^(-366/600) · form = ×0.54
Base 1.45/1.25 goals, scaled by the edge and recent form.
3Poisson → scoreline
0–2
A Poisson grid on those goal rates yields every scoreline (12.1% most likely).
4Outcome
72%
11% Uzbekistan · 17% draw · 72% Colombia.
Most likely scorelines
01234505101295214810742343345
↓ Uzbekistan goalsColombia goals →
- 0–212.1%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–39.3%
Match markets
Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Under 2.5 goals40%
Home clean sheet10%
Away clean sheet45%
Factor breakdown — the math
Each factor contributes rating points toward Uzbekistan (right, pink) or Colombia (left). They sum to a net edge of -366 for Colombia, which sets the expected goals and everything above.
Squad qualityStrength
-25Modeled
Top-XI average rating 74 vs 78.2.
homeTopXI: 74awayTopXI: 78.2
Source: Theo squad ratings
Venue & host edgeVenue
+0Modeled
Estadio Azteca: host advantage +0. High-altitude venue.
venue: Mexico City StadiumhostAdvantage: 0altitudeTier: high-altituderoof: Open-air
Source: Venue & altitude model
Weather & heatWeather
+0Live
Overcast, 16°C (WBGT 19.3°C, Comfortable).
tempC: 16heatIndexC: 15.8wbgtC: 19.3heatStress: noneroof: Open-air
Source: Theo weather (Open-Meteo)
FIFA rankingStrength
-45Modeled
FIFA rank 40 vs 10.
homeRank: 40awayRank: 10
Source: FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (fallback)
Projected scorers
- Luis Díaz40% anytime
- James Rodríguez28% anytime
- Richard Ríos25% anytime
- Jefferson Lerma23% anytime
- Jhon Córdoba20% anytime
- Luis Sinisterra20% anytime
Predicted injury risk
Which players Theo predicts are most at risk, from workload, age, congestion, and heat — a model read, not a medical assessment.
- James Rodríguezage 3432%
- Camilo Vargasage 3632%
- Eldor Shomurodovage 3124%
- Jaloliddin Masharipovage 3224%
- Igor Sergeevage 3224%
- Jefferson Lermaage 3124%
Weather & heat
16°C
Temp
17°C
Feels like
15.8°C
Heat index
19.3°C
WBGT
0 km/h
Wind
none
Heat stress
Model vs market
No market line available for this match yet. Add an Odds API key (or wait for books to post this fixture) to compare Theo's model against the de-vigged market consensus.