Team strength (Elo)Strength
+468Modeled
Portugal 2014 vs Congo DR 1546 on Theo's strength rating.
homeRating: 2014awayRating: 1546
Source: Theo strength model
Group stage 2026-06-17 NRG Stadium, Houston
Portugal3–0
Projected
Congo DRWhere to watch · US
1:00 PM ETFOXFree over the air
- FOXTV networkTV
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English-language coverage in the US (FOX Sports). Times shown in ET.
Likely line-ups
4-3-3FormationAttacking
Tap a player on the pitch or in the list to see their card.
Likely XI · ranked by Theo rating — tap a player to inspect
Bench
Predicted line-up from Theo's squad model — not an official team sheet.
Outcome
Portugal93%
Draw5%
Congo DR2%
Portugal is favored over Congo DR on the blended model. Key swing factors: FIFA ranking (+59), Squad quality (+47). Scoreline, win, and market numbers all derive from one Poisson model — open the breakdown for the full math.
From edge to scoreline — the chain
1Factors → edge
+574
Every factor sums to a net rating edge for Portugal.
2Edge → expected goals
3.75 – 0.48
1.45 · e^(+574/600) · form = ×2.60
Base 1.45/1.25 goals, scaled by the edge and recent form.
3Poisson → scoreline
3–0
A Poisson grid on those goal rates yields every scoreline (12.7% most likely).
4Outcome
93%
93% Portugal · 5% draw · 2% Congo DR.
Most likely scorelines
0123450153210531364126594
↓ Portugal goalsCongo DR goals →
- 3–012.7%
- 4–012.0%
- 2–010.1%
- 5–09.1%
Match markets
Both teams to score37%
Over 2.5 goals80%
Under 2.5 goals20%
Home clean sheet62%
Away clean sheet2%
Factor breakdown — the math
Each factor contributes rating points toward Portugal (right, pink) or Congo DR (left). They sum to a net edge of +574 for Portugal, which sets the expected goals and everything above.
Squad qualityStrength
+47Modeled
Top-XI average rating 83.3 vs 75.4.
homeTopXI: 83.3awayTopXI: 75.4
Source: Theo squad ratings
Venue & host edgeVenue
+0Modeled
NRG Stadium: host advantage +0.
venue: Houston StadiumhostAdvantage: 0altitudeTier: sea-levelroof: Retractable
Source: Venue & altitude model
Weather & heatWeather
+0Live
Overcast, 25°C (WBGT 29.3°C, High heat stress).
tempC: 25heatIndexC: 25.6wbgtC: 29.3heatStress: highroof: Retractable
Source: Theo weather (Open-Meteo)
FIFA rankingStrength
+59Modeled
FIFA rank 6 vs 45.
homeRank: 6awayRank: 45
Source: FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (fallback)
Projected scorers
- Bruno Fernandes45% anytime
- Vitinha42% anytime
- Cristiano Ronaldo42% anytime
- Rafael Leão42% anytime
- João Palhinha32% anytime
- Gonçalo Ramos32% anytime
Predicted injury risk
Which players Theo predicts are most at risk, from workload, age, congestion, and heat — a model read, not a medical assessment.
- Cristiano Ronaldoage 41 · high heat44%
- Cédric Bakambuage 34 · high heat44%
- Bruno Fernandesage 31 · high heat36%
- João Canceloage 31 · high heat36%
- Chancel Mbembaage 31 · high heat36%
- Arthur Masuakuage 32 · high heat36%
Weather & heat
25°C
Temp
30°C
Feels like
25.6°C
Heat index
29.3°C
WBGT
5 km/h
Wind
high
Heat stress
Model vs market
No market line available for this match yet. Add an Odds API key (or wait for books to post this fixture) to compare Theo's model against the de-vigged market consensus.