Team strength (Elo)Strength
+344Modeled
England 2052 vs Croatia 1708 on Theo's strength rating.
homeRating: 2052awayRating: 1708
Source: Theo strength model
Group stage 2026-06-17 AT&T Stadium, Arlington
England2–0
Projected
CroatiaWhere to watch · US
4:00 PM ETFOXFree over the air
- FOXTV networkTV
- FOX OneStreamingStream
- FOX Sports appStreamingStream
- FuboStreamingStream
- YouTube TVStreamingStream
- Hulu + Live TVStreamingStream
- Sling TVStreamingStream
- DirecTV StreamStreamingStream
English-language coverage in the US (FOX Sports). Times shown in ET.
Likely line-ups
4-4-2FormationBalanced classic
Tap a player on the pitch or in the list to see their card.
Likely XI · ranked by Theo rating — tap a player to inspect
Bench
Predicted line-up from Theo's squad model — not an official team sheet.
Outcome
England83%
Draw11%
Croatia5%
England is favored over Croatia on the blended model. Key swing factors: FIFA ranking (+39), Squad quality (+31). Scoreline, win, and market numbers all derive from one Poisson model — open the breakdown for the full math.
From edge to scoreline — the chain
1Factors → edge
+414
Every factor sums to a net rating edge for England.
2Edge → expected goals
2.89 – 0.63
1.45 · e^(+414/600) · form = ×1.99
Base 1.45/1.25 goals, scaled by the edge and recent form.
3Poisson → scoreline
2–0
A Poisson grid on those goal rates yields every scoreline (12.4% most likely).
4Outcome
83%
83% England · 11% draw · 5% Croatia.
Most likely scorelines
012345031952128231272495553
↓ England goalsCroatia goals →
- 2–012.4%
- 3–011.9%
- 4–08.6%
- 1–08.6%
Match markets
Both teams to score44%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Under 2.5 goals32%
Home clean sheet53%
Away clean sheet6%
Factor breakdown — the math
Each factor contributes rating points toward England (right, pink) or Croatia (left). They sum to a net edge of +414 for England, which sets the expected goals and everything above.
Squad qualityStrength
+31Modeled
Top-XI average rating 84.8 vs 79.6.
homeTopXI: 84.8awayTopXI: 79.6
Source: Theo squad ratings
Venue & host edgeVenue
+0Modeled
AT&T Stadium: host advantage +0.
venue: Dallas StadiumhostAdvantage: 0altitudeTier: moderateroof: Retractable
Source: Venue & altitude model
Weather & heatWeather
+0Live
Clear sky, 25°C (WBGT 28.2°C, High heat stress).
tempC: 25heatIndexC: 25.3wbgtC: 28.2heatStress: highroof: Retractable
Source: Theo weather (Open-Meteo)
FIFA rankingStrength
+39Modeled
FIFA rank 4 vs 30.
homeRank: 4awayRank: 30
Source: FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (fallback)
Projected scorers
- Jude Bellingham36% anytime
- Harry Kane36% anytime
- Bukayo Saka32% anytime
- Declan Rice30% anytime
- Phil Foden30% anytime
- Cole Palmer28% anytime
Predicted injury risk
Which players Theo predicts are most at risk, from workload, age, congestion, and heat — a model read, not a medical assessment.
- Luka Modrićage 40 · high heat44%
- Andrej Kramarićage 34 · high heat44%
- Ivan Perišićage 36 · high heat44%
- Ante Budimirage 34 · high heat44%
- Harry Kaneage 32 · high heat36%
- Jordan Pickfordage 31 · high heat36%
Weather & heat
25°C
Temp
27°C
Feels like
25.3°C
Heat index
28.2°C
WBGT
15 km/h
Wind
high
Heat stress
Model vs market
No market line available for this match yet. Add an Odds API key (or wait for books to post this fixture) to compare Theo's model against the de-vigged market consensus.