Team strength (Elo)Strength
+66Modeled
Ghana 1574 vs Panama 1508 on Theo's strength rating.
homeRating: 1574awayRating: 1508
Source: Theo strength model
Group stage 2026-06-17 BMO Field, Toronto
Ghana1–1
Projected
PanamaWhere to watch · US
7:00 PM ETFS1
- FS1TV networkTV
- FOX OneStreamingStream
- FOX Sports appStreamingStream
- FuboStreamingStream
- YouTube TVStreamingStream
- Hulu + Live TVStreamingStream
- Sling TVStreamingStream
- DirecTV StreamStreamingStream
English-language coverage in the US (FOX Sports). Times shown in ET.
Likely line-ups
4-3-3FormationAttacking
Tap a player on the pitch or in the list to see their card.
Likely XI · ranked by Theo rating — tap a player to inspect
Predicted line-up from Theo's squad model — not an official team sheet.
Outcome
Ghana52%
Draw24%
Panama24%
Ghana is favored over Panama on the blended model. Key swing factors: Squad quality (+19). Scoreline, win, and market numbers all derive from one Poisson model — open the breakdown for the full math.
From edge to scoreline — the chain
1Factors → edge
+91
Every factor sums to a net rating edge for Ghana.
2Edge → expected goals
1.69 – 1.07
1.45 · e^(+91/600) · form = ×1.16
Base 1.45/1.25 goals, scaled by the edge and recent form.
3Poisson → scoreline
1–1
A Poisson grid on those goal rates yields every scoreline (11.5% most likely).
4Outcome
52%
52% Ghana · 24% draw · 24% Panama.
Most likely scorelines
012345067411111622910535534225
↓ Ghana goalsPanama goals →
- 1–111.5%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.0%
Match markets
Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Under 2.5 goals48%
Home clean sheet34%
Away clean sheet18%
Factor breakdown — the math
Each factor contributes rating points toward Ghana (right, pink) or Panama (left). They sum to a net edge of +91 for Ghana, which sets the expected goals and everything above.
Squad qualityStrength
+19Modeled
Top-XI average rating 77.2 vs 74.
homeTopXI: 77.2awayTopXI: 74
Source: Theo squad ratings
Venue & host edgeVenue
+0Modeled
BMO Field: host advantage +0.
venue: Toronto StadiumhostAdvantage: 0altitudeTier: sea-levelroof: Open-air
Source: Venue & altitude model
Weather & heatWeather
+0Live
Overcast, 15°C (WBGT 17.8°C, Comfortable).
tempC: 15heatIndexC: 15.3wbgtC: 17.8heatStress: noneroof: Open-air
Source: Theo weather (Open-Meteo)
FIFA rankingStrength
+6Modeled
FIFA rank 44 vs 48.
homeRank: 44awayRank: 48
Source: FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (fallback)
Projected scorers
- Mohammed Kudus28% anytime
- Thomas Partey24% anytime
- Antoine Semenyo22% anytime
- Iñaki Williams20% anytime
- Adalberto Carrasquilla18% anytime
- Jordan Ayew18% anytime
Predicted injury risk
Which players Theo predicts are most at risk, from workload, age, congestion, and heat — a model read, not a medical assessment.
- Jordan Ayewage 3432%
- Aníbal Godoyage 3632%
- Cecilio Watermanage 3432%
- Thomas Parteyage 3224%
- Iñaki Williamsage 3124%
- Alexander Djikuage 3124%
Weather & heat
15°C
Temp
15°C
Feels like
15.3°C
Heat index
17.8°C
WBGT
17 km/h
Wind
none
Heat stress
Model vs market
No market line available for this match yet. Add an Odds API key (or wait for books to post this fixture) to compare Theo's model against the de-vigged market consensus.