Team strength (Elo)Strength
+286Modeled
Austria 1896 vs Jordan 1610 on Theo's strength rating.
homeRating: 1896awayRating: 1610
Source: Theo strength model
Group stage 2026-06-16 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara
Austria2–0
Projected
JordanWhere to watch · US
12:00 AM ETFS1
- FS1TV networkTV
- FOX OneStreamingStream
- FOX Sports appStreamingStream
- FuboStreamingStream
- YouTube TVStreamingStream
- Hulu + Live TVStreamingStream
- Sling TVStreamingStream
- DirecTV StreamStreamingStream
English-language coverage in the US (FOX Sports). Times shown in ET.
Likely line-ups
4-4-2FormationBalanced classic
Tap a player on the pitch or in the list to see their card.
Likely XI · ranked by Theo rating — tap a player to inspect
Predicted line-up from Theo's squad model — not an official team sheet.
Outcome
Austria79%
Draw14%
Jordan7%
Austria is favored over Jordan on the blended model. Key swing factors: FIFA ranking (+42), Squad quality (+32). Scoreline, win, and market numbers all derive from one Poisson model — open the breakdown for the full math.
From edge to scoreline — the chain
1Factors → edge
+360
Every factor sums to a net rating edge for Austria.
2Edge → expected goals
2.64 – 0.69
1.45 · e^(+360/600) · form = ×1.82
Base 1.45/1.25 goals, scaled by the edge and recent form.
3Poisson → scoreline
2–0
A Poisson grid on those goal rates yields every scoreline (12.5% most likely).
4Outcome
79%
79% Austria · 14% draw · 7% Jordan.
Most likely scorelines
0123450421972139331183475543
↓ Austria goalsJordan goals →
- 2–012.5%
- 3–011.0%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–18.6%
Match markets
Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Under 2.5 goals35%
Home clean sheet50%
Away clean sheet7%
Factor breakdown — the math
Each factor contributes rating points toward Austria (right, pink) or Jordan (left). They sum to a net edge of +360 for Austria, which sets the expected goals and everything above.
Squad qualityStrength
+32Modeled
Top-XI average rating 77.5 vs 72.2.
homeTopXI: 77.5awayTopXI: 72.2
Source: Theo squad ratings
Venue & host edgeVenue
+0Modeled
Levi's Stadium: host advantage +0.
venue: San Francisco Bay Area StadiumhostAdvantage: 0altitudeTier: sea-levelroof: Open-air
Source: Venue & altitude model
Weather & heatWeather
+0Live
Clear sky, 20°C (WBGT 22.2°C, Comfortable).
tempC: 20heatIndexC: 20.1wbgtC: 22.2heatStress: noneroof: Open-air
Source: Theo weather (Open-Meteo)
FIFA rankingStrength
+42Modeled
FIFA rank 13 vs 41.
homeRank: 13awayRank: 41
Source: FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (fallback)
Projected scorers
- Ibrahim Sadeh42% anytime
- Marcel Sabitzer37% anytime
- Konrad Laimer34% anytime
- Christoph Baumgartner31% anytime
- Nicolas Seiwald28% anytime
- Marko Arnautović25% anytime
Predicted injury risk
Which players Theo predicts are most at risk, from workload, age, congestion, and heat — a model read, not a medical assessment.
- Marko Arnautovićage 3732%
- Marcel Sabitzerage 3224%
- Michael Gregoritschage 3224%
- Phillipp Mweneage 3224%
- Yazeed Abu Lailaage 3124%
- Mousa Al-Tamariage 2818%
Weather & heat
20°C
Temp
22°C
Feels like
20.1°C
Heat index
22.2°C
WBGT
15 km/h
Wind
none
Heat stress
Model vs market
No market line available for this match yet. Add an Odds API key (or wait for books to post this fixture) to compare Theo's model against the de-vigged market consensus.