Team strength (Elo)Strength
+344Modeled
Argentina 2092 vs Algeria 1748 on Theo's strength rating.
homeRating: 2092awayRating: 1748
Source: Theo strength model
Group stage 2026-06-16 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Argentina2–0
Projected
AlgeriaWhere to watch · US
9:00 PM ETFOXFree over the air
- FOXTV networkTV
- FOX OneStreamingStream
- FOX Sports appStreamingStream
- FuboStreamingStream
- YouTube TVStreamingStream
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- DirecTV StreamStreamingStream
English-language coverage in the US (FOX Sports). Times shown in ET.
Likely line-ups
4-3-3FormationAttacking
Tap a player on the pitch or in the list to see their card.
Likely XI · ranked by Theo rating — tap a player to inspect
Bench
Predicted line-up from Theo's squad model — not an official team sheet.
Outcome
Argentina84%
Draw11%
Algeria5%
Argentina is favored over Algeria on the blended model. Key swing factors: Squad quality (+41), FIFA ranking (+36). Scoreline, win, and market numbers all derive from one Poisson model — open the breakdown for the full math.
From edge to scoreline — the chain
1Factors → edge
+421
Every factor sums to a net rating edge for Argentina.
2Edge → expected goals
2.92 – 0.62
1.45 · e^(+421/600) · form = ×2.02
Base 1.45/1.25 goals, scaled by the edge and recent form.
3Poisson → scoreline
2–0
A Poisson grid on those goal rates yields every scoreline (12.3% most likely).
4Outcome
84%
84% Argentina · 11% draw · 5% Algeria.
Most likely scorelines
012345031852128231272495553
↓ Argentina goalsAlgeria goals →
- 2–012.3%
- 3–012.0%
- 4–08.8%
- 1–08.5%
Match markets
Both teams to score44%
Over 2.5 goals69%
Under 2.5 goals31%
Home clean sheet54%
Away clean sheet5%
Factor breakdown — the math
Each factor contributes rating points toward Argentina (right, pink) or Algeria (left). They sum to a net edge of +421 for Argentina, which sets the expected goals and everything above.
Squad qualityStrength
+41Modeled
Top-XI average rating 84.1 vs 77.3.
homeTopXI: 84.1awayTopXI: 77.3
Source: Theo squad ratings
Venue & host edgeVenue
+0Modeled
Arrowhead Stadium: host advantage +0.
venue: Kansas City StadiumhostAdvantage: 0altitudeTier: moderateroof: Open-air
Source: Venue & altitude model
Weather & heatWeather
+0Live
Overcast, 29°C (WBGT 24°C, Elevated heat stress).
tempC: 29heatIndexC: 27.4wbgtC: 24heatStress: elevatedroof: Open-air
Source: Theo weather (Open-Meteo)
FIFA rankingStrength
+36Modeled
FIFA rank 1 vs 25.
homeRank: 1awayRank: 25
Source: FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (fallback)
Projected scorers
- Lionel Messi39% anytime
- Lautaro Martínez35% anytime
- Julián Álvarez33% anytime
- Alexis Mac Allister31% anytime
- Enzo Fernández29% anytime
- Rodrigo De Paul27% anytime
Predicted injury risk
Which players Theo predicts are most at risk, from workload, age, congestion, and heat — a model read, not a medical assessment.
- Lionel Messiage 38 · elevated heat38%
- Nicolás Otamendiage 38 · elevated heat38%
- Riyad Mahrezage 35 · elevated heat38%
- Aïssa Mandiage 34 · elevated heat38%
- Emiliano Martínezage 33 · elevated heat30%
- Rodrigo De Paulage 31 · elevated heat30%
Weather & heat
29°C
Temp
26°C
Feels like
27.4°C
Heat index
24°C
WBGT
13 km/h
Wind
elevated
Heat stress
Model vs market
No market line available for this match yet. Add an Odds API key (or wait for books to post this fixture) to compare Theo's model against the de-vigged market consensus.