Team strength (Elo)Strength
-132Modeled
Iraq 1604 vs Norway 1736 on Theo's strength rating.
homeRating: 1604awayRating: 1736
Source: Theo strength model
Group stage 2026-06-16 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
Iraq1–1
Projected
NorwayWhere to watch · US
6:00 PM ETFOXFree over the air
- FOXTV networkTV
- FOX OneStreamingStream
- FOX Sports appStreamingStream
- FuboStreamingStream
- YouTube TVStreamingStream
- Hulu + Live TVStreamingStream
- Sling TVStreamingStream
- DirecTV StreamStreamingStream
English-language coverage in the US (FOX Sports). Times shown in ET.
Likely line-ups
4-3-3FormationAttacking
Tap a player on the pitch or in the list to see their card.
Likely XI · ranked by Theo rating — tap a player to inspect
Predicted line-up from Theo's squad model — not an official team sheet.
Outcome
Iraq23%
Draw24%
Norway54%
Norway is favored over Iraq on the blended model. Key swing factors: Squad quality (-43), FIFA ranking (-22). Scoreline, win, and market numbers all derive from one Poisson model — open the breakdown for the full math.
From edge to scoreline — the chain
1Factors → edge
-198
Every factor sums to a net rating edge for Norway.
2Edge → expected goals
1.04 – 1.74
1.45 · e^(-198/600) · form = ×0.72
Base 1.45/1.25 goals, scaled by the edge and recent form.
3Poisson → scoreline
1–1
A Poisson grid on those goal rates yields every scoreline (11.2% most likely).
4Outcome
54%
23% Iraq · 24% draw · 54% Norway.
Most likely scorelines
012345061195216111062236533245
↓ Iraq goalsNorway goals →
- 1–111.2%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.4%
Match markets
Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Under 2.5 goals47%
Home clean sheet18%
Away clean sheet35%
Factor breakdown — the math
Each factor contributes rating points toward Iraq (right, pink) or Norway (left). They sum to a net edge of -198 for Norway, which sets the expected goals and everything above.
Squad qualityStrength
-43Modeled
Top-XI average rating 72.4 vs 79.5.
homeTopXI: 72.4awayTopXI: 79.5
Source: Theo squad ratings
Venue & host edgeVenue
+0Modeled
Gillette Stadium: host advantage +0.
venue: Boston StadiumhostAdvantage: 0altitudeTier: sea-levelroof: Open-air
Source: Venue & altitude model
Weather & heatWeather
+0Live
Clear sky, 20°C (WBGT 20.1°C, Comfortable).
tempC: 20heatIndexC: 19.8wbgtC: 20.1heatStress: noneroof: Open-air
Source: Theo weather (Open-Meteo)
FIFA rankingStrength
-22Modeled
FIFA rank 42 vs 27.
homeRank: 42awayRank: 27
Source: FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (fallback)
Projected scorers
- Erling Haaland34% anytime
- Martin Ødegaard26% anytime
- Alexander Sørloth18% anytime
- Mohanad Ali18% anytime
- Fredrik Aursnes15% anytime
- Antonio Nusa15% anytime
Predicted injury risk
Which players Theo predicts are most at risk, from workload, age, congestion, and heat — a model read, not a medical assessment.
- Ørjan Nylandage 3532%
- Ali Adnanage 3224%
- Jalal Hassanage 3124%
- Birger Melingage 3124%
- Aymen Husseinage 3018%
- Bashar Resanage 2918%
Weather & heat
20°C
Temp
20°C
Feels like
19.8°C
Heat index
20.1°C
WBGT
8 km/h
Wind
none
Heat stress
Model vs market
No market line available for this match yet. Add an Odds API key (or wait for books to post this fixture) to compare Theo's model against the de-vigged market consensus.