Team strength (Elo)Strength
+238Modeled
France 2060 vs Senegal 1822 on Theo's strength rating.
homeRating: 2060awayRating: 1822
Source: Theo strength model
Group stage 2026-06-16 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
France2–0
Projected
SenegalWhere to watch · US
3:00 PM ETFOXFree over the air
- FOXTV networkTV
- FOX OneStreamingStream
- FOX Sports appStreamingStream
- FuboStreamingStream
- YouTube TVStreamingStream
- Hulu + Live TVStreamingStream
- Sling TVStreamingStream
- DirecTV StreamStreamingStream
English-language coverage in the US (FOX Sports). Times shown in ET.
Likely line-ups
4-3-3FormationAttacking
Tap a player on the pitch or in the list to see their card.
Likely XI · ranked by Theo rating — tap a player to inspect
Bench
Predicted line-up from Theo's squad model — not an official team sheet.
Outcome
France73%
Draw17%
Senegal10%
France is favored over Senegal on the blended model. Key swing factors: Squad quality (+35), FIFA ranking (+21). Scoreline, win, and market numbers all derive from one Poisson model — open the breakdown for the full math.
From edge to scoreline — the chain
1Factors → edge
+294
Every factor sums to a net rating edge for France.
2Edge → expected goals
2.37 – 0.77
1.45 · e^(+294/600) · form = ×1.63
Base 1.45/1.25 goals, scaled by the edge and recent form.
3Poisson → scoreline
2–0
A Poisson grid on those goal rates yields every scoreline (12.2% most likely).
4Outcome
73%
73% France · 17% draw · 10% Senegal.
Most likely scorelines
01234504311083212943107346453
↓ France goalsSenegal goals →
- 2–012.2%
- 1–010.3%
- 3–09.6%
- 2–19.3%
Match markets
Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Under 2.5 goals39%
Home clean sheet46%
Away clean sheet9%
Factor breakdown — the math
Each factor contributes rating points toward France (right, pink) or Senegal (left). They sum to a net edge of +294 for France, which sets the expected goals and everything above.
Squad qualityStrength
+35Modeled
Top-XI average rating 84.6 vs 78.8.
homeTopXI: 84.6awayTopXI: 78.8
Source: Theo squad ratings
Venue & host edgeVenue
+0Modeled
MetLife Stadium: host advantage +0.
venue: New York New Jersey StadiumhostAdvantage: 0altitudeTier: sea-levelroof: Open-air
Source: Venue & altitude model
Weather & heatWeather
+0Live
Clear sky, 24°C (WBGT 22.3°C, Comfortable).
tempC: 24heatIndexC: 24.4wbgtC: 22.3heatStress: noneroof: Open-air
Source: Theo weather (Open-Meteo)
FIFA rankingStrength
+21Modeled
FIFA rank 3 vs 17.
homeRank: 3awayRank: 17
Source: FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (fallback)
Projected scorers
- Kylian Mbappé36% anytime
- Ousmane Dembélé30% anytime
- Aurélien Tchouaméni26% anytime
- Eduardo Camavinga24% anytime
- Marcus Thuram24% anytime
- Adrien Rabiot21% anytime
Predicted injury risk
Which players Theo predicts are most at risk, from workload, age, congestion, and heat — a model read, not a medical assessment.
- Sadio Manéage 3432%
- Édouard Mendyage 3432%
- Kalidou Koulibalyage 3432%
- Idrissa Gueyeage 3632%
- Adrien Rabiotage 3124%
- Ousmane Dembéléage 2818%
Weather & heat
24°C
Temp
23°C
Feels like
24.4°C
Heat index
22.3°C
WBGT
20 km/h
Wind
none
Heat stress
Model vs market
No market line available for this match yet. Add an Odds API key (or wait for books to post this fixture) to compare Theo's model against the de-vigged market consensus.