Team strength (Elo)Strength
+256Modeled
Belgium 1976 vs Egypt 1720 on Theo's strength rating.
homeRating: 1976awayRating: 1720
Source: Theo strength model
Group stage 2026-06-15 Lumen Field, Seattle
Belgium2–0
Projected
EgyptWhere to watch · US
3:00 PM ETFOXFree over the air
- FOXTV networkTV
- FOX OneStreamingStream
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English-language coverage in the US (FOX Sports). Times shown in ET.
Likely line-ups
4-3-3FormationAttacking
Tap a player on the pitch or in the list to see their card.
Likely XI · ranked by Theo rating — tap a player to inspect
Bench
Predicted line-up from Theo's squad model — not an official team sheet.
Outcome
Belgium75%
Draw16%
Egypt9%
Belgium is favored over Egypt on the blended model. Key swing factors: FIFA ranking (+32), Squad quality (+26). Scoreline, win, and market numbers all derive from one Poisson model — open the breakdown for the full math.
From edge to scoreline — the chain
1Factors → edge
+313
Every factor sums to a net rating edge for Belgium.
2Edge → expected goals
2.44 – 0.74
1.45 · e^(+313/600) · form = ×1.69
Base 1.45/1.25 goals, scaled by the edge and recent form.
3Poisson → scoreline
2–0
A Poisson grid on those goal rates yields every scoreline (12.3% most likely).
4Outcome
75%
75% Belgium · 16% draw · 9% Egypt.
Most likely scorelines
012345043110832129331073465532
↓ Belgium goalsEgypt goals →
- 2–012.3%
- 1–010.1%
- 3–010.1%
- 2–19.2%
Match markets
Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Under 2.5 goals38%
Home clean sheet48%
Away clean sheet9%
Factor breakdown — the math
Each factor contributes rating points toward Belgium (right, pink) or Egypt (left). They sum to a net edge of +313 for Belgium, which sets the expected goals and everything above.
Squad qualityStrength
+26Modeled
Top-XI average rating 80.7 vs 76.5.
homeTopXI: 80.7awayTopXI: 76.5
Source: Theo squad ratings
Venue & host edgeVenue
+0Modeled
Lumen Field: host advantage +0.
venue: Seattle StadiumhostAdvantage: 0altitudeTier: sea-levelroof: Partial roof
Source: Venue & altitude model
Weather & heatWeather
+0Live
Overcast, 29°C (WBGT 25.2°C, Elevated heat stress).
tempC: 29heatIndexC: 28.1wbgtC: 25.2heatStress: elevatedroof: Partial roof
Source: Theo weather (Open-Meteo)
FIFA rankingStrength
+32Modeled
FIFA rank 8 vs 29.
homeRank: 8awayRank: 29
Source: FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (fallback)
Projected scorers
- Kevin De Bruyne37% anytime
- Jérémy Doku28% anytime
- Romelu Lukaku28% anytime
- Youri Tielemans26% anytime
- Charles De Ketelaere24% anytime
- Amadou Onana22% anytime
Predicted injury risk
Which players Theo predicts are most at risk, from workload, age, congestion, and heat — a model read, not a medical assessment.
- Kevin De Bruyneage 34 · elevated heat38%
- Mohamed El-Shenawyage 37 · elevated heat38%
- Romelu Lukakuage 32 · elevated heat30%
- Leandro Trossardage 31 · elevated heat30%
- Koen Casteelsage 33 · elevated heat30%
- Mohamed Salahage 33 · elevated heat30%
Weather & heat
29°C
Temp
27°C
Feels like
28.1°C
Heat index
25.2°C
WBGT
17 km/h
Wind
elevated
Heat stress
Model vs market
No market line available for this match yet. Add an Odds API key (or wait for books to post this fixture) to compare Theo's model against the de-vigged market consensus.