Team strength (Elo)Strength
+142Modeled
IR Iran 1790 vs New Zealand 1648 on Theo's strength rating.
homeRating: 1790awayRating: 1648
Source: Theo strength model
Group stage 2026-06-15 SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
IR Iran1–0
Projected
New ZealandWhere to watch · US
9:00 PM ETFS1
- FS1TV networkTV
- FOX OneStreamingStream
- FOX Sports appStreamingStream
- FuboStreamingStream
- YouTube TVStreamingStream
- Hulu + Live TVStreamingStream
- Sling TVStreamingStream
- DirecTV StreamStreamingStream
English-language coverage in the US (FOX Sports). Times shown in ET.
Likely line-ups
4-3-3FormationAttacking
Tap a player on the pitch or in the list to see their card.
Likely XI · ranked by Theo rating — tap a player to inspect
Predicted line-up from Theo's squad model — not an official team sheet.
Outcome
IR Iran61%
Draw22%
New Zealand17%
IR Iran is favored over New Zealand on the blended model. Key swing factors: FIFA ranking (+29). Scoreline, win, and market numbers all derive from one Poisson model — open the breakdown for the full math.
From edge to scoreline — the chain
1Factors → edge
+177
Every factor sums to a net rating edge for IR Iran.
2Edge → expected goals
1.95 – 0.93
1.45 · e^(+177/600) · form = ×1.34
Base 1.45/1.25 goals, scaled by the edge and recent form.
3Poisson → scoreline
1–0
A Poisson grid on those goal rates yields every scoreline (10.9% most likely).
4Outcome
61%
61% IR Iran · 22% draw · 17% New Zealand.
Most likely scorelines
012345065211110521110537634335
↓ IR Iran goalsNew Zealand goals →
- 1–010.9%
- 2–010.7%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
Match markets
Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Under 2.5 goals45%
Home clean sheet39%
Away clean sheet14%
Factor breakdown — the math
Each factor contributes rating points toward IR Iran (right, pink) or New Zealand (left). They sum to a net edge of +177 for IR Iran, which sets the expected goals and everything above.
Squad qualityStrength
+6Modeled
Top-XI average rating 75 vs 74.
homeTopXI: 75awayTopXI: 74
Source: Theo squad ratings
Venue & host edgeVenue
+0Modeled
SoFi Stadium: host advantage +0.
venue: Los Angeles StadiumhostAdvantage: 0altitudeTier: sea-levelroof: Fixed translucent canopy
Source: Venue & altitude model
Weather & heatWeather
+0Live
Mainly clear, 22°C (WBGT 24.3°C, Elevated heat stress).
tempC: 22heatIndexC: 22.5wbgtC: 24.3heatStress: elevatedroof: Fixed translucent canopy
Source: Theo weather (Open-Meteo)
FIFA rankingStrength
+29Modeled
FIFA rank 20 vs 39.
homeRank: 20awayRank: 39
Source: FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (fallback)
Projected scorers
- Mehdi Taremi36% anytime
- Sardar Azmoun30% anytime
- Chris Wood23% anytime
- Alireza Jahanbakhsh21% anytime
- Saman Ghoddos18% anytime
- Saeid Ezatolahi15% anytime
Predicted injury risk
Which players Theo predicts are most at risk, from workload, age, congestion, and heat — a model read, not a medical assessment.
- Ehsan Hajsafiage 35 · elevated heat38%
- Shojae Khalilzadehage 36 · elevated heat38%
- Chris Woodage 34 · elevated heat38%
- Michael Boxallage 37 · elevated heat38%
- Mehdi Taremiage 33 · elevated heat30%
- Sardar Azmounage 31 · elevated heat30%
Weather & heat
22°C
Temp
24°C
Feels like
22.5°C
Heat index
24.3°C
WBGT
13 km/h
Wind
elevated
Heat stress
Model vs market
No market line available for this match yet. Add an Odds API key (or wait for books to post this fixture) to compare Theo's model against the de-vigged market consensus.