Team strength (Elo)Strength
+542Modeled
Spain 2076 vs Cabo Verde 1534 on Theo's strength rating.
homeRating: 2076awayRating: 1534
Source: Theo strength model
Group stage 2026-06-15 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Spain4–0
Projected
Cabo VerdeWhere to watch · US
12:00 PM ETFOXFree over the air
- FOXTV networkTV
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English-language coverage in the US (FOX Sports). Times shown in ET.
Likely line-ups
4-4-2FormationBalanced classic
Tap a player on the pitch or in the list to see their card.
Likely XI · ranked by Theo rating — tap a player to inspect
Bench
Predicted line-up from Theo's squad model — not an official team sheet.
Outcome
Spain95%
Draw4%
Cabo Verde1%
Spain is favored over Cabo Verde on the blended model. Key swing factors: Squad quality (+65), FIFA ranking (+60). Scoreline, win, and market numbers all derive from one Poisson model — open the breakdown for the full math.
From edge to scoreline — the chain
1Factors → edge
+667
Every factor sums to a net rating edge for Spain.
2Edge → expected goals
4.16 – 0.41
1.45 · e^(+667/600) · form = ×3.04
Base 1.45/1.25 goals, scaled by the edge and recent form.
3Poisson → scoreline
4–0
A Poisson grid on those goal rates yields every scoreline (12.9% most likely).
4Outcome
95%
95% Spain · 4% draw · 1% Cabo Verde.
Most likely scorelines
012345014294312541355114
↓ Spain goalsCabo Verde goals →
- 4–012.9%
- 3–012.3%
- 5–010.8%
- 2–08.8%
Match markets
Both teams to score33%
Over 2.5 goals84%
Under 2.5 goals16%
Home clean sheet66%
Away clean sheet1%
Factor breakdown — the math
Each factor contributes rating points toward Spain (right, pink) or Cabo Verde (left). They sum to a net edge of +667 for Spain, which sets the expected goals and everything above.
Squad qualityStrength
+65Modeled
Top-XI average rating 84.3 vs 73.4.
homeTopXI: 84.3awayTopXI: 73.4
Source: Theo squad ratings
Venue & host edgeVenue
+0Modeled
Mercedes-Benz Stadium: host advantage +0.
venue: Atlanta StadiumhostAdvantage: 0altitudeTier: moderateroof: Retractable (pinwheel)
Source: Venue & altitude model
Weather & heatWeather
+0Live
Clear sky, 32°C (WBGT 31.5°C, High heat stress).
tempC: 32heatIndexC: 34.5wbgtC: 31.5heatStress: highroof: Retractable (pinwheel)
Source: Theo weather (Open-Meteo)
FIFA rankingStrength
+60Modeled
FIFA rank 2 vs 46.
homeRank: 2awayRank: 46
Source: FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (fallback)
Projected scorers
- Rodri52% anytime
- Lamine Yamal47% anytime
- Pedri45% anytime
- Dani Olmo38% anytime
- Nico Williams38% anytime
- Fabián Ruiz36% anytime
Predicted injury risk
Which players Theo predicts are most at risk, from workload, age, congestion, and heat — a model read, not a medical assessment.
- Dani Carvajalage 34 · high heat44%
- Bebéage 35 · high heat44%
- Ryan Mendesage 35 · high heat44%
- Garry Rodriguesage 35 · high heat44%
- Vozinhaage 38 · high heat44%
- Álvaro Morataage 33 · high heat36%
Weather & heat
32°C
Temp
35°C
Feels like
34.5°C
Heat index
31.5°C
WBGT
16 km/h
Wind
high
Heat stress
Model vs market
No market line available for this match yet. Add an Odds API key (or wait for books to post this fixture) to compare Theo's model against the de-vigged market consensus.