Team strength (Elo)Strength
-222Modeled
Saudi Arabia 1682 vs Uruguay 1904 on Theo's strength rating.
homeRating: 1682awayRating: 1904
Source: Theo strength model
Group stage 2026-06-15 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens
Saudi Arabia0–2
Projected
UruguayWhere to watch · US
6:00 PM ETFS1
- FS1TV networkTV
- FOX OneStreamingStream
- FOX Sports appStreamingStream
- FuboStreamingStream
- YouTube TVStreamingStream
- Hulu + Live TVStreamingStream
- Sling TVStreamingStream
- DirecTV StreamStreamingStream
English-language coverage in the US (FOX Sports). Times shown in ET.
Likely line-ups
4-3-3FormationAttacking
Tap a player on the pitch or in the list to see their card.
Likely XI · ranked by Theo rating — tap a player to inspect
Predicted line-up from Theo's squad model — not an official team sheet.
Outcome
Saudi Arabia16%
Draw21%
Uruguay64%
Uruguay is favored over Saudi Arabia on the blended model. Key swing factors: Squad quality (-36), FIFA ranking (-33). Scoreline, win, and market numbers all derive from one Poisson model — open the breakdown for the full math.
From edge to scoreline — the chain
1Factors → edge
-291
Every factor sums to a net rating edge for Uruguay.
2Edge → expected goals
0.89 – 2.03
1.45 · e^(-291/600) · form = ×0.62
Base 1.45/1.25 goals, scaled by the edge and recent form.
3Poisson → scoreline
0–2
A Poisson grid on those goal rates yields every scoreline (11.1% most likely).
4Outcome
64%
16% Saudi Arabia · 21% draw · 64% Uruguay.
Most likely scorelines
012345051111841510107322443345
↓ Saudi Arabia goalsUruguay goals →
- 0–211.1%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.8%
Match markets
Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Under 2.5 goals44%
Home clean sheet13%
Away clean sheet41%
Factor breakdown — the math
Each factor contributes rating points toward Saudi Arabia (right, pink) or Uruguay (left). They sum to a net edge of -291 for Uruguay, which sets the expected goals and everything above.
Squad qualityStrength
-36Modeled
Top-XI average rating 74.4 vs 80.4.
homeTopXI: 74.4awayTopXI: 80.4
Source: Theo squad ratings
Venue & host edgeVenue
+0Modeled
Hard Rock Stadium: host advantage +0.
venue: Miami StadiumhostAdvantage: 0altitudeTier: sea-levelroof: Partial canopy
Source: Venue & altitude model
Weather & heatWeather
+0Live
Overcast, 28°C (WBGT 31.6°C, High heat stress).
tempC: 28heatIndexC: 32.2wbgtC: 31.6heatStress: highroof: Partial canopy
Source: Theo weather (Open-Meteo)
FIFA rankingStrength
-33Modeled
FIFA rank 34 vs 12.
homeRank: 34awayRank: 12
Source: FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (fallback)
Projected scorers
- Federico Valverde36% anytime
- Rodrigo Bentancur25% anytime
- Darwin Núñez25% anytime
- Manuel Ugarte21% anytime
- Nicolás De La Cruz21% anytime
- Salem Al-Dawsari20% anytime
Predicted injury risk
Which players Theo predicts are most at risk, from workload, age, congestion, and heat — a model read, not a medical assessment.
- Salem Al-Dawsariage 34 · high heat44%
- Mohammed Al-Owaisage 34 · high heat44%
- Ali Al-Bulayhiage 36 · high heat44%
- Mohamed Kannoage 31 · high heat36%
- José María Giménezage 31 · high heat36%
- Sergio Rochetage 33 · high heat36%
Weather & heat
28°C
Temp
32°C
Feels like
32.2°C
Heat index
31.6°C
WBGT
17 km/h
Wind
high
Heat stress
Model vs market
No market line available for this match yet. Add an Odds API key (or wait for books to post this fixture) to compare Theo's model against the de-vigged market consensus.